Friday, October 29, 2010

Benjamin Franklin Quote

The man who trades freedom for security does not deserve nor will he ever receive either.
– Benjamin Franklin

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Peter Lynch

"The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them."
-Peter Lynch

Saturday, August 7, 2010

Top Financial Scams

http://www.snopes.com/fraud/topscams.asp

I always find these amusing and they are worthy of your awareness.

I received a family member (friend) in distress email recently. The email seems almost possible at first until you think - why would this person be emailing me instead of calling a much more relevant person? The more relevant person knows, of course, that his mother is NOT in England on a trip.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Future Expected Stock Market Returns

Stock market returns have (theoretically at least) 3 components:
  • Rate of Inflation
  • Risk Free Rate
  • Equity Premium
The expected return is the sum of these three. Current inflation is about 2.2%; historically the long-term risk free rate of return is about 0.7% and the equity premium about 4.8%. The sum is 7.7% which is the expected rate of return of the stock market.

This may seem surprisingly low to some who recall long-term rates of return for stocks in the 9% to 11% range. However, long-term rates of inflation are about 4.7% and the sum of the three components using that inflation rate is 10.2%.

So don't be shocked if nominal (including inflation) stock market returns in the current environment are lower that you remember. Do remember that what you get to spend is the real return (returns after adjustment for inflation) which is expected to be about 5.5% in both environments.